On the transportation front, it’s a numbers game and the numbers are sobering.
Oregon is growing—fast. By 2050 forecasters say there will be an additional
1.7 million residents in the Willamette Valley. That would make the total population
in the valley around 4 million people, and of course all those people are going
to have transportation needs.
If we continue to satisfy those needs through use of cars and trucks, as we
have for most of the past century, a lot of fossil fuels will be converted into
carbon monoxide and a lot of new demands will be placed on our already overtaxed
roadway system.
Transportation planners are looking for more sustainable ways to satisfy mobility
requirements, but at this point there are more questions than answers. For example:
Should more be invested in mass transit? In roadway systems? In commercial air
service? Is it possible to alleviate air quality concerns through development
of car engines that use clean and renewable fuels? How can economic incentives
be used to alleviate traffic congestion? What role can land use planning play
in improving our access to jobs, schools and other needed services? And what
can be done to maintain public safety on roads and highways as growth occurs
and traffic congestion increases?
"It’s difficult to identify answers to these questions because growth
creates such a complex set of interrelated impacts," said Tom Schwetz,
transportation planning manager for the Lane Council of Governments in Eugene.
"Things happen that our best planning models can’t anticipate."
For example, Schwetz continued, 20 years ago the Eugene-Springfield area had
a carbon monoxide problem due to the growing numbers of cars in the area.
"Today, Eugene-Springfield is in compliance with federal standards for
carbon monoxide emissions, but this is due more to federal requirements for
cleaner- burning engines than anything we could do at the local level,"
Schwetz said.
It’s a case of technology coming to the rescue, according to Schwetz.
Certainly technology will be part of the answer to achieving sustainability
in our future transportation needs, he said. Scientists are developing hybrid
electric cars. High speed rail systems may be a cost-effective alternative for
transportation between cities, while light rail or bus rapid transit systems
could provide solutions within cities. An example of light rail is the MAX system
constructed in Portland a few years ago.
Of course all of these transportation alternatives have their critics. Auto
manufacturers aren’t sure hybrid cars with non-traditional engines will
be acceptable to consumers, and some transportation economists say rail systems
cost too much and don’t alleviate traffic congestion as much as their supporters
claim. (Portland’s light rail system has come under this criticism since
it was built).
Certainly many perplexing questions lie before us, said Schwetz. The most immediate
transportation problem we face in Oregon right now is finding the political
commitment to fund the maintenance of the existing statewide road network we
already have, he said.